Adam Dorr and Tony Seba of RethinkX, a think tank that studies technology disruptions, just published a report entitled “Rethinking Energy 2020 – 2030.” The report gives us a blueprint of how we can achieve 50% Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reduction by 2030 as required by an overwhelming consensus of scientific thought in order to limit global warming to 1.5^oC and stave off the worst effects of climate change. Below is my summary of the most profound insights of this report.

1. We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest and most profound disruption of the energy sector. What happened in the world of bits will happen in the world of electrons.
2. In the ’20s, solar photovoltaic systems will get cheaper by 72%, lithium-ion batteries by 80% and wind power by 43% (in addition to the torrid pace in the ’10s of 82%, 87% and 46%, respectively).
3. These cost reductions will lead to 100% Solar, Wind, Battery (SWB) electric grids.
4. 100% SWB is not only physically possible and economically affordable but will be inevitable by 2030. The capital cost of a 100% SWB system nationwide is under $2T over 10 years, less than 1% of GDP during that period.
5. As a result, coal, gas and nuclear will become stranded assets in this decade. No new investment is rational at this point in time (backers of the Danskammer gas plant in Newburgh, please take note).
6. The lowest cost SWB system is determined by a clean energy U curve (see figure above). This analysis leads to some surprising results:
   • The minimum generating capacity an electrical grid needs is its average hourly demand; theoretically, such minimal generation can be paired with a huge amount of battery storage to create a working grid. Obviously, this is not a minimum cost solution. Interestingly, the minimum cost solution involves generating 3x to 5x of this minimum capacity using cheap and abundant solar and wind power. Previous studies had advocated systems with slightly less than 1x capacity, while this report advocates much higher generating capacity. Unlike previous thinking, this report considers the extra electrical power an opportunity (see “super power” below) rather than a problem.
   • The amount of battery storage required is surprisingly small, ranging from 43 to 89 hours of storage depending on climate patterns in different parts of the country.
   • The mix of wind and solar heavily favors solar because solar will be cheaper. However, a small but judicious mix of wind power reduces the amount of batteries required (think 4 cloudy days in a row during which wind power reduces the strain on the system).